Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers: Betting Preview and Predictions
The Denver Nuggets (42-24) host the Los Angeles Lakers (40-24) in a key Western Conference showdown on Friday. Denver has dropped two of its last three games, including a 115-95 blowout loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Lakers are struggling on their current road trip, losing all three games so far, including a 126-106 defeat to the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday.
Injury Report
- Lakers: LeBron James (groin) and Luka Doncic (calf) – OUT
- Nuggets: Aaron Gordon (ankle) – QUESTIONABLE; Nikola Jokic (elbow) and Jamal Murray (knee) – PROBABLE
Tipoff at Ball Arena is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET. The teams have split their previous two matchups this season, with the road team winning each time. Denver enters as a 14.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 227.5 points, down from the opening line of 232.
Expert Predictions and Betting Trends
SportsLine’s Projection Model has simulated this game 10,000 times, providing key insights for bettors. Over the past six seasons, the model has generated over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors on top-rated NBA picks. It currently boasts a 148-107 record on top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. This season, it’s also hitting 65% (19-10) of its spread picks.
Odds and Betting Lines
- Spread: Nuggets -14.5
- Over/Under: 227.5 points
- Moneyline: Nuggets -1124, Lakers +710
- ATS Records:
- Lakers: 35-28-1
- Nuggets: 32-32-1
Why the Lakers Can Cover
With multiple key injuries, rookie Dalton Knecht is expected to take on a larger role. In nine games where he has played at least 30 minutes, Knecht has averaged 20.3 points and 5.0 rebounds while shooting 53.6% from the field and 50% from three-point range.
Additionally, guard Austin Reaves brings versatility and playmaking ability. He averages 18.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game. On March 10 against Brooklyn, he recorded 17 points and 10 assists, marking his fifth double-double of the season.
Why the Nuggets Can Cover
Nikola Jokic (probable) continues to dominate across the board, ranking third in the NBA in scoring (29 PPG) and rebounding (12.9 RPG) while sitting second in assists (10.4 APG). He also ranks 10th in field-goal percentage (57.7%). In his last outing, Jokic scored 34 points with eight rebounds and four assists. He has surpassed 30 points in three of his last four games.
Michael Porter Jr. provides additional firepower for Denver. Averaging 18.3 points and seven rebounds per game while shooting 40% from deep, he’s a reliable scoring option. On March 9 against the Thunder, he posted 24 points and 15 rebounds, securing his 12th double-double of the season.
Final Prediction
SportsLine’s model is projecting a high-scoring game, leaning toward the over with a projected total of 229 points. It also predicts that one side of the spread covers in nearly 70% of simulations.
For the latest expert picks and analysis, visit SportsLine.